Correlation Risk as a Tradable Factor and Return Predictor

Correlation Risk as a Tradable Factor and Return Predictor

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The promise of modern portfolio theory was that a basket of uncorrelated assets would provide better risk-adjusted returns, over time, than a portfolio whose constituents move together. The problem that confronted many investors in 2008 and in the years since was that, in a crisis, even traditionally dissimilar assets had the potential to become highly correlated, making diversification efforts fruitless. Investors concerned that a portfolio of stocks might become increasingly correlated in a crisis have turned to equity index options to protect against that risk. In “Option-Implied Correlations and the Price of Correlation Risk,” Driessen, Maenhout, and Vilkov argue that correlation risk is a priced factor that can be measured from equity option prices.

A recent paper contains several surprising conclusions about the relationships among option implied correlation, realized index correlation, the volatility risk premium, and future stock returns.
Author:
Jared Woodard 
Category:
Columns
Tags:
variance risk premium, realized correlation, implied correlation, risk premium, stock returns
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